Jake Betz: Assessing what's next for Hillary Clinton

Illustration: Philip Burke

By Jake Betz: Hillary Clinton has already made history. She was the first woman to be a strong contender for the presidential nomination of a major political party, and she is the first wife of a president to earn high office in her own right.

Hillary’s loyal fans would like nothing better than for her to make one more run for the presidency, but prospects for that are unlikely. The fact is, time is against her. So is her age.

In 2012, Clinton will celebrate her 65th birthday; it’s difficult to envision a plausible scenario in which she would challenge her boss, Barack Obama, for the Democratic nomination that year. Such a race would have the potential for splitting the party for a generation, and, in the end, it would be a futile exercise. Although Obama will probably be “beatable” in the 2012 general election, he is popular enough to easily withstand a challenge in the primaries, even from the formidable Hillary. It’s been 126 years since an incumbent president (Chester A. Arthur) has been denied renomination by a party convention.

Four years later, Clinton will be 69. Although that’s not too old by historical standards (Ronald Reagan was 69 at his first election), as a practical matter, it would be a difficult sell for her. She does not have the same easy-going temperament as Reagan, and her years as Secretary of State, First Lady and keeping up with and tolerating Bill will likely have taken their toll. By then, the Democratic Party, long suffering from Clinton fatigue, will want to look at some fresh faces.

Unless a serious policy dispute develops within the Obama administration, Hillary will likely remain as Secretary of State until after the 2012 election. It is unlikely she will serve more than one term at State, since re-elected presidents traditionally like to wipe the slate clean and change the foreign policy/national defense team.

So what’s next for her? Well, there is the possibility of the vice presidency in 2013, if for some reason Obama decides to replace Joe Biden. The vice presidency would be the capstone of an impressive political career, and, again, Hillary would make history if she became the first woman to hold that office. Since, by most accounts, the Obama and Hillary seem to get along well, she would seem a logical choice, especially if Obama needs to strengthen his ties to her former supporters.

If Biden hangs on as Number Two for a second Obama term and Clinton leaves the administration in 2012, she might consider returning to the U.S. Senate. She enjoyed the job, was well-respected by her colleagues and remains popular with her former constituents in New York State. However, for her, it might be a case of “been there, done that.”

Barring any future elective or appointed offices, Hillary will still remain a force within the Democratic Party. Female candidates from coast to coast will welcome her support. She will likely inspire a new generation of young women to get involved in the political process.

Most importantly, Hillary will be revered as an elder statesman. She will receive many invitations for television interviews and major newspapers would be open to occasional op-ed columns from her on issues of national and international significance. As a former Secretary of State, she could be a presidential troubleshooter for future administrations, a good-will ambassador, Secretary General of the United Nations or the founder of a new prestigious think tank. Of course, she will write her memoirs about her tenure as Secretary of State, and these will be a best-seller, especially if she offers any criticism of Obama.

Hillary has “invented” and “re-invented” herself many times over the past four decades, so there is no doubt that no matter what role she fashions, she will remain a significant figure in public life.